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Why Trump still needs Bannon

来源:FT中文网    2017-04-14 06:24

        Well, that was a relief. It took less than a hundred days for Donald Trump to put the generals in the driving seat. Stephen Bannon, the grand architect of the impending clash of civilisations, has already been sidelined. America’s allies in Europe are audibly exhaling. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is no longer Mr Trump’s best friend. Democratic and Republican hawks alike are still showering Mr Trump with praise. Another salvo of Tomahawk missiles should cement the deal. All is now forgiven. Goodbye Mr Bannon. Welcome to Trump 2.0.        没错,这事让人松了一口气。还不到一百天,唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就让将军们坐上了驾驶座。迫在眉睫的文明冲突的总设计师斯蒂芬•班农(Stephen Bannon),则已经靠边站。美国在欧洲的盟国明显松了一口气。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)不再是特朗普最好的朋友。民主党和共和党的鹰派人士一样,还在对特朗普大加溢美之词。再来一轮战斧式导弹,应该会把一切巩固下来。如今,所有事情都被原谅了。再见了,班农。欢迎特朗普2.0。
        Alas, there is a flaw in this near-universal view. Mr Bannon is still around. Indeed, the White House chief strategist is the only person in the Trump administration who comes close to having a strategic brain. Jared Kushner, like his father-in-law, is a Manhattan realtor with a talent for connections. But he has no worldview. James Mattis, secretary of defence, has a shrewd military brain. But battlefield nous should not be confused with strategy. Ditto for HR McMaster, national security adviser, who joined forces with Mr Kushner to sideline Mr Bannon. Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, remains an unknown quantity. He is also bound to a see-saw. After last week’s strikes on Syria, Mr Tillerson said the Trump administration’s goal was to remove Bashar al-Assad. The week before, he said precisely the opposite. It is hard to keep up with Mr Trump.        不过,在这几乎一片和谐的图景中还有一个缺陷。班农仍然没有退场。事实上,这位白宫首席战略顾问是特朗普政府唯一接近于拥有战略头脑的人。贾里德•库什纳(Jared Kushner)和他的岳父一样,是一位有人脉经营天赋的曼哈顿房地产经纪人。不过,他没有全球眼光。国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯(James Mattis)有着精明的军事头脑。然而战场上的头脑不应该与战略混为一谈。而与库什纳一道把班农挤走的国家安全顾问赫伯特•雷蒙德•麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)也同样如此。国务卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)依然让人捉摸不透。他也同样处于摇摆之中。在上周美国空袭叙利亚之后,蒂勒森曾表示特朗普政府的目标是让巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)下台。就在前一周,他所说的还完全相反。特朗普的节奏是很难跟上的。
        Like him or loathe him, Mr Bannon’s perspective is consistent. It also comes closest to Mr Trump’s. Moreover, Mr Trump still needs him. The Bannon worldview is clear. The US has spent too long following the strictures of the Washington foreign policy establishment, which rarely hears of a missile strike it does not like. Mr Bannon was reportedly opposed to last week’s attack. He had his reasons. The first is that the US cannot afford to be sucked into another Middle Eastern quagmire.        不论喜欢还是厌恶班农,他的观点是前后一致的。他的观点也最接近特朗普的观点。此外,特朗普仍然需要班农。班农的全球观是明确的。美国遵循华盛顿对外政策建制派约束的时间太长了。对于不喜欢的导弹袭击,建制派很少会批准。据报道,班农反对上周的袭击。他有他的理由。第一个就是美国无法承受陷入又一个中东泥潭的代价。
        It is quite possible — even probable — that Mr Trump’s actions took place in a strategic vacuum. He saw the Syrian carnage on television and reached for his remote control. Those 59 Tomahawks could have been the munitions equivalent of a tweet. The next one might be different.        有可能——甚至很可能——特朗普的行动是发生在一种战略真空状态下。他在电视上看到了叙利亚的屠杀,就把手伸向了遥控器。这59枚战斧式导弹或许是一种“军火版”推文。而下一次也许会是另外一种形式。
        On the other hand, it could be the first part of a new phase in which Mr Trump takes ownership of Syria’s future. Good luck with that. It would take the wiles of Henry Kissinger and the luck of Ronald Reagan to fix Syria. Mr Trump might be better off listening to Mr Bannon the next time the urge strikes him. No doubt, he is equally capable of giving incendiary advice in different circumstances — a clash with China, for example. But on the Middle East, Mr Bannon’s instincts are sound.        另一方面,这或许是特朗普取得对叙利亚未来控制权的新阶段的第一部分。祝他好运。要想解决叙利亚问题,需要亨利•基辛格(Henry Kissinger)的谋略和罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)的运气。下一次产生冲动时,特朗普或许最好是听一听班农的意见。毫无疑问,在不同情况下——比如与中国发生冲突——班农同样可能提出有煽动性的建议。然而在中东问题上,班农的直觉是靠谱的。
        Mr Trump is also sidelining Mr Bannon’s economic advice. In the coming weeks the Trump administration will unveil plans for US tax reform. The piece that most matters to Mr Trump’s voters is the promise of a $1tn infrastructure modernisation. It was the core of his vow to the so-called forgotten American. He would bring jobs to the midwest and restore pride to the welders. Here too, establishment voices have been getting the better of the argument. Mr Trump is surrounded by conventional tax-cutting advisers from Wall Street and the Republican party.        特朗普还搁置了班农在经济上的建议。今后几周特朗普政府将披露美国税制改革计划。对特朗普的选民来说,最重要的部分是兑现1万亿美元基础设施现代化的承诺。对于所谓被遗忘的美国人来说,这是特朗普承诺的核心。特朗普承诺会为中西部带来工作岗位,并恢复焊接工人的自豪感。在这方面,建制派的声音同样已经在辩论中占了上风。特朗普的身边,都是来自华尔街和共和党的支持传统减税的顾问。
        Were Mr Trump to focus instead on a middle-class fiscal package, he would need to make common cause with the Democratic party. All the signs are that he is heading in the opposite direction. Washington is moving rapidly back to the kinds of policies that were so angrily rejected by voters last year. Just as the generals are squeezing out Mr Trump’s America First foreign policy, so Wall Street is winning the economic debate.        而特朗普要想把注意力集中在面向中产阶级的财政方案上,就必须联合民主党。而所有迹象都表明,他正走在相反的方向上。华盛顿正在迅速回归去年被选民愤怒反对的那类政策。正如将军们正在挤走特朗普的“美国优先”(America First)对外政策,华尔街也在赢得这轮经济辩论。
        In both cases Mr Bannon is the loser. Of course, in many big instances he deserves it. The wall with Mexico was always an expensive irrelevance. The travel ban on citizens from six Middle Eastern countries is a needless provocation that deserves to be shut down by the courts. The winks to the thugs of the alt-right are unforgivable.        从这两方面来说,班农都是输家。当然,在许多重大事情上,他也应该成为输家。与墨西哥之间的墙始终是一个代价高昂的无用之物。对六个中东国家公民的旅行禁令是一种毫无必要的挑衅,应该受到法庭的封杀。而向“另类右翼”(alt-right)暴徒示好,也是不可原谅的。
        But we should not confuse those who voted for Mr Trump with fascists, or even a “basket of deplorables”. Millions of Americans who voted Trump had also voted for Barack Obama. As the saying goes, the Trump voter base took him seriously but not literally. What they heard was a promise to put the US middle class back into the limelight. That meant no more reckless wars. Mr Trump’s attack on George W Bush’s Iraq war was a seminal moment in his campaign. It also meant no more pandering to the super-rich. The Trump campaign was the first successful pitch to blue-collar voters in Republican history. Mr Bannon was one of its architects.        不过,我们不应该把投票给特朗普的人与法西斯主义者——甚至“一群应受谴责的人”——混为一谈。成百万投票给特朗普的美国人也曾投票给巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)。正如人们说的,特朗普的选民对待特朗普是认真的,但不是从字面上理解他的话。他们听到的,是让美国中产阶级重新得到关注的承诺。这意味着不要再鲁莽地卷入战争。特朗普对乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)的伊拉克战争的抨击,是其选战中一个影响重大的时刻。该承诺也意味着不再迎合超级富豪。特朗普的竞选是共和党历史上对蓝领选民的第一次成功推销。班农则是策划者之一。
        It is impossible to shed tears for Mr Bannon. It would also be premature. He is still a stone’s throw from the Oval Office. Moreover, not all of his advice is outrageous. A politician should at least try to redeem some of what he promised to the voters. If Mr Trump’s election signalled anything, it was that the Washington establishment was a busted flush. American politics deserved to be disrupted. It still does. Mr Bannon’s fortunes are the best measure we have of whether Mr Trump remembers why he was elected.        为班农掉落几滴眼泪是不可能的。这么做也时机未到。他现在距椭圆办公室仍只有一步之遥。而且,并不是他的所有建议都是出格的。政治家至少应该努力履行部分对选民的承诺。如果说特朗普的当选传递出什么信号,那就是华盛顿建制派是一手没凑齐的同花顺。美国政治应该重新洗牌。这一点现在仍然成立。班农未来的命运可以最好地告诉我们,特朗普是否还记得自己为什么当选。

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